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A new poll indicates South Africa is more likely than ever to have a coalition government
after this year’s national elections.
The Brenthurst Foundation survey found significant interest in a Multi-Party Coalition
combining the Democratic Alliance (DA), Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), ActionSA,
Freedom Front Plus and United Independent Movement.
In-depth interviews revealed a decline in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s favorability to
42%, down from 48% last year.
Professor David Everatt, who led the poll, said the Western Cape may now be held by a
coalition with DA support below 50%. He believes KwaZulu-Natal is out of ANC reach,
polling around 20%, allowing a DA-IFP coalition to take charge.
Gauteng could still be ANC controlled at 35% where they can decide on coalition
partners, Everatt explained. The ANC is slightly stronger in the Free State at 41% and
Northern Cape at 42%.
Everatt stated: “Coalitions are highly likely after these elections. The ANC will have to
share power in most provinces and potentially nationally.”
The poll indicates growing dissatisfaction with ANC leadership, translating to losses in
provinces it historically dominated. This fractures the landscape requiring cooperation
between parties.
With no party able to achieve an outright majority, compromises will be required to build
functional provincial and national governments. The era of single party control appears
to be ending.
The survey demonstrates citizens desire for a multi-party system and power sharing
arrangements. Coalitions may provide greater accountability through checks and
balances.
However, ideologically opposed parties will need to find common ground on policies.
Their ability to negotiate shared governance will determine the country’s political future.
