Study Suggests Tobacco Sales Ban Could Save 10,000 Lives in South Africa

A global research team, including University of Pretoria’s Professor Lekan Ayo-Yusuf, has estimated that banning cigarette sales to individuals born between 2006 and 2010 could save 10,000 lives in South Africa by reducing lung cancer mortality. The study, published in The Lancet, is the first of its kind to assess the potential global impact of a “tobacco endgame” strategy on lung cancer deaths.

Key Findings:

• Global Impact: The simulation study predicted that nearly three million lung cancer deaths could occur among people born between 2006 and 2010 by 2095 if current smoking trends persist. The strategy could prevent 40% of these deaths.
• Regional Impact: In sub-Saharan Africa, South Africa would see the highest number of lives saved by the end of this century, with about 10,900 lives spared from lung cancer. Overall, 12,000 lives could be saved across southern Africa.
• Gender Disparities: More lung cancer deaths could be prevented in men (846,000) than women (342,000), with regional differences showing a higher impact for men in areas such as southern Africa and eastern Asia.

Implications for South Africa:

South Africa has the highest daily smoking prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa, making it a critical target for implementing the endgame strategy. Professor Ayo-Yusuf emphasized the need to address the political, social, and cultural factors that encourage tobacco use and to tighten regulations on the tobacco industry.

Methodology:

The research simulated a scenario in which tobacco sales were banned for people born between 2006 and 2010, projecting the potential reduction in lung cancer deaths by 2095. Data from the World Health Organisation and other global cancer databases informed the estimates, adjusted for regional and income disparities.

Call to Action:

The findings advocate for policies banning cigarette sales to younger generations as a means to curb tobacco-related deaths and reduce healthcare burdens. Collaboration among governments, health agencies, and communities will be essential to implementing and enforcing such measures effectively.

The study underscores the urgency of adopting stringent anti-smoking policies in regions like South Africa, where the potential to save lives is significant.